This Week in Real Estate 7-31-2015 - Feds to keep rates steady

Most likely, Mortgage Interest rates to remain stable.

This week the bullets from notes from the Federal Reserve:

·         Economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months

·         Growth in household spending has been moderate

·         Business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft.

·         The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment.

·         Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective

So actions to be taken by the Federal Reserve:

·         The Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.

·         In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.

·         The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term (6-12 months)

We can all thank the Chinese Stock Market and the European Debt Crisis for keeping our interest rated lower. The Federal Reserve had stated a target date for interest rate increases in June last fall, then September this spring. Now they are using a vague statement of time which usually means a year or longer. Rates have been creeping up in the last 6 months, but expect to see them hold in their current range for the next few months. (4-4.5%)

This Week in Real Estate 7/24/2015 - Housing getting stable

Housing has reached the Stable Range.

Not too hot, not too cold, but just right.  It’s a good way to describe a stable housing market, and that's what the Freddie Mac Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®) measures.
Local Perspective

The housing crisis and uneven recovery across the nation emphasized that housing activity differs from market to market. To offer a fresh perspective and a better understanding of these local differences, we introduced MiMi.

Each month MiMi provides housing data with local market context for lenders, real estate experts, analysts, economists, reporters, and other industry professionals. By aggregating multiple indicators into a single composite index value for each market covered, MiMi offers unique insight into local housing activity today, over time, and compared to other markets across the nation.

Measuring Stability

MiMi measures the stability of local housing activity by combining current local market data with Freddie Mac data for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, the top 100 metros, and the nation.

Specifically, MiMi assesses where each market is relative to its own long-term stable range by looking at home purchase applications, payment-to-income ratios (changes in home purchasing power based on house prices, mortgage rates and household income), proportion of current mortgage payments in each market, and the local employment picture.

The four indicators are combined to create a composite MiMi value for each market. The indicators themselves act as weights on a scale that measure shifts in a particular market. When the indicators are in balance – what MiMi refers to as “In Range” - the market is considered stable and within its long-term normal range. When the indicators move outside of their long-term stable range, the market is considered either weak or elevated.

Overall the Nation is now in the “stable” range with a rating of 79.2

Locally our markets are faring much better.

California                 87.7

San Francisco           88.8
San Jose                    89.8
Sacramento              82.4
Stockton                   80.2
Modesto                   86.0

This Week in Real Estate - 7-17-15 - Market Trend up!

Trend report for the 1^st half of 2015

The numbers are in and they look great. When looking for trends, I like to look at quarterly data. With the books closed on the second quarter of 2015 here is a great glimpse at what we have been seeing. All the data is from BAREIS MLS, Napa County. But these figures echo what is happening in Sonoma and Solano counties as well.

Let’s start by looking at the Percentage change in Median Price of Quarter 12 months previous. (eg. Q1 2014 vs Q1 2013)

As you can see the dramatic turn around started in 2012. Though our growth in the median price has slowed down, we are still averaging double digit increases. This slowdown is a good thing for long sustainable growth.

Median Prices

The median price is climbing up, from the low of $323,000 in Q4 2011 to $588,000 in Q2 2015. We are less than 10% below the peak of $643,000 in Q2 2007. We will likely be at that figure within 12-24 months.

This gets us to the supply and demand curve from our early economics classes.

Inventory:

Months of inventory:

If you would like a FREE home evaluation, please do not hesitate to call. You may have more equity in your home than you think.

-Kris

Home Tip of the week

Recently there have been a few break ins in Napa while people were on vacation. Some of these events have been by high schools students who know the victims! This has been a growing trend since everyone loves to post on Facebook their great vacation photos. But here are a couple of tips to keep your home safer while enjoying your time away.

#1. You want to make your place looked lived in. Have someone housesit for you. Make sure your newspaper and mail is picked up regularly. Put lights on timers, install motion detector lights, and leave a radio on.

#2. Be careful what you post and how. Check your Facebook privacy settings. When you post that great picture of you at the beach, thank your friend for house sitting. Ask your dog sitter take good care of your pit bulls and Rottweilers.

#3. Talk to your neighbors, tell them that you will be away and give them an emergency contact number. Add security. There are portable motion detector alarms that sell for $20-30 online that will sound a 120 db alarm that will notify a neighbor that something is up.

Enjoy your vacations. Be safe.

This week in Real Estate 7-10-15 - El Nino?

Rain Rain please stay …

For the past two days I have had to look at the calendar many times to make sure we are still in July. Rain is welcome in this area no matter what the season, but recent we have been getting some VERY encouraging news.

Many publications came out with preditions that the El Nino brewing in the pacific right now is stronger than the 1997-1998 event.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/07/09/el-nino-california/29921633/

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_28458401/california-drought-el-nino-weather-event-is-biggest

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-outlook-strong-possible-may2015

If it is as strong as predicted, this one year could do a lot to fill the reservoirs and the start to see the end of the record drought.

-Kris

Home Tip of the week

Following are a few tips that will give every homeowner a little piece of mind before the first rains arrive.

1.    Have your gutters checked to insure that they are free of leaves, dirt, tennis balls or other items that may clog the downspouts and gutters.

2.   Have all of the roof penetrations’ (plumber pipes, heater vents, fireplaces and skylights) checked for any cracks and to make sure that they are properly sealed

3.   If you have any valleys on your roof look to make sure that they are free of debris and if not have the debris removed

4.   Check to make sure that there are no tree branches sitting or rubbing on your roof, if so cut them back so they are not touching the roof

These are just a few preventive maintenance items that if done a couple of times a year (usually in the fall and again in late winter) will help to protect your home from unwanted water intrusion during the rainy season.  Please feel free to call our company at any time for a FREE quote.

Dan Young

Raneri and Long Roofing Company

800 / 992 / 8040 (o)

dan@rlrco.com

This week in Real Estate 7-3-15

The Greece Debt Crisis

Greece’s government has defaulted on a €1.6bn loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund becoming the first advanced economy to do so in the institution’s 71-year history. The Greek Crisis is so impactful that it has its own website http://www.greekcrisis.net/

The reason this is such an interesting study is that there are a lot of countries, USA included, that are teetering on brink of “too much debt.”

Greece represents only 2% of Europe’s GDP and 0.4% of the world’s GDP.

They only owe approximately $352 billion dollars and 175% of its GDP, to put that in comparison, the US owes 18.15 TRILLION dollars (50 times the amount owed by Greece) and 108% of our GDP.

So the biggest thing that people are doing is looking at how the world is going to react to a relatively small nation collapsing under the debt.

What happens to the first country that is removed from the Euro?

What happens when an economy that is much larger like Japan (20x) or Italy (9x) approaches debt levels where default is imminent?

What happens next? That is the big question.

With the vote on Sunday to default, Monday will be a very interesting day for the financial markets.

-Kris

Home Tip of the week

There are fabulous events and fireworks shows in our area.

In Napa -

July 3^rd 9:15 pm - Silverado Country Club Fireworks

July 4^th – In Downtown Napa

On Saturday, July 4th, the skies over the Napa River and Veterans Memorial Park will burst with color in one of North Bay’s largest Independence Day Celebrations. "Napa Lights The Valley", the theme of City of Napa’s July 4th festival, will honor Earthquake First Responders and the men and women of our armed forces. Activities begin in downtown Napa at 10:00 a.m. with the Sunrise Rotary Napa 4th of July Parade, followed by a riverfront music and food festival from 12 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. Free music will play all day from the JaM Cellars stage in Veterans Memorial Park, culminating with a Sparkling Wine Toast and Fireworks Extravaganza. This year’s hi-tech pyrotechnic show is designed in collaboration with PyroSpectaculars, producer of Boston Pops and Macy’s 4th of July Fireworks Celebration.

In Yountville

6:00 pm Festivities at the Veterans Home of California-Yountville will begin. Music food and fun! Fireworks begin at 9:30 p.m.

In St. Helena

9:30pm Fireworks

In Calistoga

Celebrate an all-American, vintage, 4th of July with summer sizzle starting with a hometown Parade in charming Calistoga then head to the Fair for a giant tailgate picnic, fun rides and unique contests. Bring your lunch, your portable BBQ, or buy lunch from local non-profits. Enjoy a wine pavilion, olive oil tastings, live music, art exhibits, and Kid Kountry. Entertainers stroll among the guests, exhibits display blue ribbons, and everyone’s invited to make and take art projects at the Make & Take Center. At night enjoy the Fireworks Sky Concert.

In American Canyon

10:30 am Parade begins at the corner of Kimberly & Elliott    

Activities throughout the day.

9:30 pm Fireworks Show Community Park II 20 Benton Way

In Suisun City,

11 a.m. to 10:30 p.m., July 4, 2015

There will be activities all day long at the Suisun City Waterfront District

Fireworks at 9:15pm