Happy Thanksgiving.
I hope that you
had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I know mine was filled with blessings again this
year.
-Kris
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Friday, November 20, 2015
This Week in Real Estate 11-20-2015 Rates heading higher
Rates likely to increase in December
Prior to the
October’s Job report the percentage of financial analysts that thought a rate
increase for the December Federal Reserve meeting was about 35%. After that
report it went up to 70%. Now with unemployment near 5% and core inflation
figures about to come out at 2% the increase is just about a lock.
We have seen the
mortgage rate volatility increase in recent weeks as well. We are up and
trending to stay that way. Up about 12-25 basis points from the beginning of
October, and that is in direct proportion to the expected 0.25% increase in the
FEDs short term lending rate.
This is a good
sign for the health of the real estate market and overall economy as a whole.
-Kris
Friday, November 13, 2015
This Week in Real Estate 11-13-2015 2016 Forecast
Housing forecast for 2016
California’s housing
market will continue to improve into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the
market and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist, according to the
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing Market
Forecast,”.
The C.A.R. forecast sees
an increase in existing home sales of 6.3 percent next year to reach 433,000
units, up from the projected 2015 sales figure of 407,500 homes sold.
Sales in 2015 also will be up 6.3 percent from the 383,300 existing,
single-family homes sold in 2014.
“Solid job growth and
favorable interest rates will drive a strong demand for housing next year,”
said C.A.R. President Chris Kutzkey. “However, in regions where inventory
is tight, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, sales growth could be limited by
stiff market competition and diminishing housing affordability. On the other
hand, demand in less expensive areas such as Solano County, the Central Valley,
and Riverside/San Bernardino areas will remain strong thanks to solid job
growth in warehousing, transportation, logistics, and manufacturing in these
areas.”
C.A.R.’s forecast
projects growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.7 percent in 2016,
after a projected gain of 2.4 percent in 2015. With nonfarm job growth of
2.3 percent in California, the state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 5.5
percent in 2016 from 6.3 percent in 2015 and 7.5 percent in 2014.
The average for 30-year,
fixed mortgage interest rates will rise only slightly to 4.5 percent but will
still remain at historically low levels.
The California median
home price is forecast to increase 3.2 percent to $491,300 in 2016, following a
projected 6.5 percent increase in 2015 to $476,300. This is the slowest
rate of price appreciation in five years.
“The foundation for
California’s housing market remains strong, with moderating home prices, signs
of credit easing, and the state continuing to lead the nation in economic and
job growth,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie
Appleton-Young. “However, the global economic slowdown, financial market
volatility, and the anticipation of higher interest rates are some of the
challenges that may have an adverse impact on the market’s momentum next year.
Additionally, as we see more sales shift to inland regions of the state, the
change in mix of sales will keep increases in the statewide median price
tempered.”
2016 California Housing
Market Forecast
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015p
|
2016f
|
|
SFH Resales (000s)
|
416.5
|
422.6
|
439.8
|
414.9
|
383.3
|
407.5
|
433.0
|
% Change
|
-12.30%
|
1.40%
|
4.10%
|
-5.90%
|
-7.60%
|
6.30%
|
6.30%
|
Median Price ($000s)
|
$305.0
|
$286.0
|
$319.3
|
$407.2
|
$447.0
|
$476.3
|
$491.3
|
% Change
|
10.9%
|
-6.2%
|
11.6%
|
27.5%
|
9.8%
|
6.5%
|
3.2%
|
Housing Affordability Index
|
48%
|
53%
|
51%
|
36%
|
30%
|
31%
|
27%
|
30-Yr FRM
|
4.70%
|
4.50%
|
3.70%
|
4.00%
|
4.20%
|
3.90%
|
4.50%
|
p = projected
f = forecast
f = forecast
For the full 131
slide presentation from Leslie Appleton Young please visit:
Great
Information.
Friday, November 6, 2015
This Week in Real Estate 11-6-2015 Renting vs. Buying.
Rent vs. Buying
I know that home
prices are up dramatically in the bay area, but those prices are being out
paced by the increases in rent in our area as well. Recently this article from
Zumper shows that 3 of the top 5 most expensive rental cities are #1 San
Francisco, #4 San Jose and #5 Oakland.
In Napa, our
rental situation is just as bad, the vacancy rate has been about 3-4% all year.
The rents have been going up steadily for the past 5 years and right now the
“break even” point for buying vs. renting is about 7 years on a median 3
bedroom 2 bath home.(assuming $618,000 for the home purchase and $2,500 for the
rental rate)
If you are
looking at putting down roots in the Valley, it might be a good time to look at
purchasing while rates are still in the low 4% range.
-Kris
Home Tips for preparing for the holidays.
When I worked in
advertising these are the make or break weeks for the year known as the Hard 8.
There are 8 weeks between Halloween and Christmas. It is supposed to be the
“happiest time of the year”, but the stress level goes up, the time seems to
vanish, and work becomes crazy …
I really liked
the following bloggers/websites take on how to make this time of year more
about loving the holidays vs. getting through the holidays.
Celebrating Veterans Day.
If you have
served, THANK YOU. and there are a tremendous amount of businesses that would
like to thank you as well.
Free meals for
veterans on Wednesday November 11, 2015.
You can support
our veterans as well with support to the Pathway Home, or many of the other great
organizations helping our soldiers.
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